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An analysis of penalty kicks in elite football post 1997

机译:1997年后精英足球罚点球分析

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摘要

The penalty kick in football is a seemingly simplistic play; however, it has increased in complexity since 1997 when the rules changed allowing goalkeepers to move laterally along their goal line before the ball was kicked. Prior to 1997 goalkeepers were required to remain still until the ball was struck. The objective of this study was to determine the importance of the penalty kick in the modern game of football. A retrospective study of the 2002, 2006 and 2010 World Cup and the 2000, 2004 and 2008 European Championship tournaments was carried out, assessing the importance of the penalty kick in match play and shootouts and the effect of the time of the game on the shooter's success rate. This study demonstrated the conversion rate of penalties was 73% in shootouts and 68% in match play. Significantly more penalties were awarded late in the game: twice as many penalties in the second half than the first and close to four times as many in the fourth quarter vs. the first. Teams awarded penalty kicks during match play won 52%, drew 30% and lost 18% of the time; chances of winning increased to 61% if the penalty was scored, but decreased to 29% if missed. Teams participating in either the World Cup or European Championship final match had roughly a 50% chance of being involved in a penalty shootout during the tournament. Penalty shots and their outcome significantly impact match results in post 1997 football.
机译:足球中的点球大战看似简单。但是,自1997年规则发生变化以来,门将可以在踢球之前沿球门线横向移动,从而增加了比赛的复杂性。在1997年之前,守门员必须保持静止直到球被击中。这项研究的目的是确定罚球在现代足球比赛中的重要性。对2002年,2006年和2010年世界杯足球赛以及2000年,2004年和2008年欧洲冠军联赛的比赛进行了回顾性研究,评估了比赛和点球大战中点球的重要性以及比赛时间对射手得分的影响。成功率。这项研究表明,点球大战中点球的转换率是73%,比赛中点球是68%。比赛后期判处的罚款明显更多:下半场的罚球次数是上半场的两倍,而第四季度与上半场的罚球次数接近四倍。在比赛中获得罚点球的球队赢得52%,抽奖30%和输掉18%的时间;如果计分成功,获胜的机会会增加到61%,但如果错过则减少到29%。参加世界杯或欧洲冠军杯决赛的球队在比赛期间大约有50%的机会参与点球大战。罚球及其结果显着影响1997年后足球比赛的比赛结果。

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